Make or break: The final 8
Top of the table with only eight games to go, yet, there’s anxiety creeping into Newcastle as pressure mounts in their final push for promotion. Despite impressive victories against Brighton and Huddersfield, the home defeat to Fulham and the stalemate against strugglers Birmingham has put the promotion party on hold. A point clear of Brighton, and with the relentless Huddersfield lurking around the corner, Newcastle know they cannot afford any further slip ups.
In a season where we have witnessed jubilation, frustration, controversy and unity, the Championship has predictably been unpredictable. The importance of the remaining fixtures has dawned upon many; the supporters’ feeling of disenchantment in not being comprehensive enough has not gone unnoticed. Most of that dissatisfaction comes from the Magpies’ home form. Of the next eight fixtures, five of them are at St. James’ Park, and it is in front of the expectant 52,000 where Newcastle have failed to capitalise. Rafa has urged the fans to stick together, in a recent Q&A with the Chronicle, he said: “We are together in this race, we are at our strongest when we are united. The fans, players, the staff – all of us helping to achieve our shared goal.”
Whether it is a psychological issue, complacency or the sheer stubborn tactics of the opponents, Newcastle’s home form this season has been a growing concern. Despite picking up only 35 points at St. James’ Park and sitting 7th in the home form guide, encouragement is key, and Benítez is convinced his side can turn it around. On paper, the Geordies should be unparalleled against their counterparts, and picking up maximum points from their remaining fixtures should be no mean feat. However, as Newcastle enter a month that is set to be decisive in shaping the Club’s future – the pressure of that alone, and the unyielding opponents whom have their own objectives to achieve – could make these next set of fixtures an arduous battle.
Here I look at the final 8 games and the possible outcome of each match:
WIGAN (H)
The Latics are fighting for survival and will take confidence in Newcastle’s home record going into this fixture. Caretaker manager Graham Barrow is overseeing his second-spell as an interim boss this season, following the sacking of Warren Joyce.
Seven points away from safety, this game is crucial for the Lancashire club. With only one win in seven, it’s essentially Wigan’s away form that has kept them alive in their bid to avoid the drop. The international break came at a good time for Benítez and his men, and despite a lot of emphasis being put on Newcastle’s dismal home record, I fully expect Newcastle to brush Wigan aside on 01st April.
Prediction: 3-1
BURTON ALBION (H)
Another side fighting to stay in the Championship, this fixture will be a tougher proposition than Wigan. When the two sides met in December, Newcastle were well on their way to record a routine victory, but ended up hanging onto a 2-1 win. Burton caused major issues in the 2nd half and were unlucky to not come away with a point.
The pacey Lloyd Dyer has the potential to cause problems on the counter-attack and was a real threat to Newcastle at the Pirelli Stadium in December.
Burton have struggled for goals in this division – managing only 39 – but have boosted their options upfront with the loan signing of Fulham striker Cauley Woodrow. The youngster has bagged 4 goals in 9 appearances and will be looking to replicate the performance of his parent club’s last visit to the North-East.
Subject to not picking up any major injuries, this is a game Newcastle should be easily winning, regardless of the pressures they may be under. Still affected by that injury and convalescing, Dwight Gayle requires some sharpness in front of goal; this game could be the perfect antidote and an opportunity to rediscover his form against a leaky Burton defence.
Prediction: 2-0
SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY (A)
The Owls have already beaten Newcastle once this season, but they are currently hanging onto the play-off zone. Their recent form has been unconvincing and it seems like Carvalhal is starting to buckle under the pressure. The Magpies’ away form has been incredible and Benítez’s men have enjoyed their trips to Yorkshire this season.
Week 41 is going to be a pivotal week in the race for promotion and Championship title. All three – Newcastle, Brighton and Huddersfield – are away, but I can only see the Geordies picking up maximum points that week.
Prediction: 1-2
LEEDS UNITED (H)
As per my predictions, Newcastle will have picked up 9 points from their last three games and will be in cruise control for the Championship title. The issues of playing at home will come back to the surface again, and I envisage this Leeds side causing a lot of difficulties. Looking to end the season strongly, and with an outside chance of nabbing 2nd spot, containing the likes of Hernández and Wood is always going to be a tough task. Defensively, Leeds have looked strong and that’s largely credited to the blossoming partnership between Bartley and Jansson.
A game where the home side will have most of the play, but perhaps struggle to create decent openings. Out of all the remaining games, I can see this one being a real sticking point and our mini-winning streak coming to a halt. A smash and grab performance by Leeds.
Prediction: 0-1
IPSWICH TOWN (A)
If we go ahead and drop points against Leeds, the pressure will be back on Newcastle to maintain their top-spot position. The Magpies have a solid record against Ipswich and their last outing at Portman Road in 2009 ended in a 4-0 victory. With Ipswich seemingly safe and expected to be around mid-table when the two sides meet, McCarthy’s side wouldn’t have a lot to play for.
On the other hand, Newcastle will have everything to play for and I expect them to continue their decent away record in East Anglia.
Prediction: 0-1
PRESTON NORTH END (H)
In front of the Sky cameras, this is the game where we seal our promotion back to the Premier League. Having already played and beaten Preston twice this season, a dominant Newcastle may be out in force to complete their main mission objective. Simon Grayson has done a fantastic job at Deepdale and their performance in the second-half of the season has given them an outside chance of reaching the play-offs.
Due to the potential importance of this encounter, I firmly believe Benítez and the players will have too much for Preston. By this stage Huddersfield will have travelled to face Derby and then face a tricky home-tie against Fulham – I can see them dropping points in both of those games.
Prediction: 3-0
CARDIFF CITY (A)
Promotion sealed with 93 points, and now it is a race for the title between Newcastle and Brighton. Prior to this game, Brighton would have travelled to Carrow Road to face Norwich City. Everyone expected Norwich to be in the top-3 by this stage, but they have drifted away drastically. In the midst of a scrap to get in the play-off zone, Norwich could well beat Brighton, meaning a win for Newcastle in Wales would hand them the title.
It’s been a disappointing season for Cardiff, and they are currently comfortable in mid-table. With only 2 games remaining, a resolute display from the Magpies may be enough to ensure the win and crown them as Champions.
Prediction: 1-2
BARNSLEY (H)
Final game of the season, and by this time, I imagine the afternoon at St. James’ Park will be a celebratory occasion. A bumper crowd and a buoyant atmosphere to see Lascelles and Benítez lift the title. With all the outcomes in the Championship expected to be decided before this match, I would assume the game against Barnsley would be more free-flowing and that’ll be to the advantage of the home side; Newcastle to end the season with 99 points and as Champions.
Prediction: 4-2
On the other hand, if the likes of Brighton and Huddersfield refuse to give in, the final game of the season could very well be a nervy and tense affair. Without a doubt, it is imperative for the Magpies to take full-advantage of their next two home games; back-to-back wins could release the shackles and see a Newcastle side perform to its optimum.
