Relegation: What if?
Relegation: the increasingly apparent elephant in the room. While the arrival of Rafael Benitez has renewed hopes that Newcastle can avoid the drop – there remains a strong likelihood of trips to Brighton and Nottingham Forest next year. If this came to pass: what are the implications? In this piece I take on a series of issues normally associated with relegation, and speculate about how these issues might look in a Newcastle context.
Finances:
The gargantuan reward for remaining in the Premier League comes at a comparative cost for those that fall out of it. In times gone by – the gap between the Premier League and leagues below was far smaller – both in terms of finances and calibre of players. Naturally, as the gap between the former grows, the latter follows. As a result, it is becoming harder and harder for teams to recover from relegation. There is the increased threat of administration as teams are forced to slash budgets and cut costs. While some clubs have managed to buck this trend (QPR, West Ham, Norwich) – there is no doubt that relegation from the Premier League sets a club back a considerable amount of time.
On the financial front: Newcastle are probably in comparatively good shape. We know their finances our sound (remember the infamous “balance sheet champions” banner?). We also know their owner is frugal. If Newcastle went down – we could likely count on some savvy business moves from Mike Ashley to ensure Newcastle’s long-term future. As Ashley himself reluctantly admitted in a recent interview: he is “wedded” to Newcastle. While it might be a marriage of inconvenience, relegation won’t bring about a messy divorce.
Players:
While fans of relegated of teams often cry “Judas!” when players leave: the reality is that owners will need to ship out high earning players to respond to the comparative lack of revenue. But, at the same time, owners/managers appreciate the need for a core group of players capable of taking the team back to the promised land. There is thus a meticulous balancing act – where one must know who to release and who to keep. Of course, this is complicated by players themselves, most of whom are reluctant to play Championship football. With this in mind: here I assess the future prospects of the Newcastle squad should they be relegated this season.
Rob Elliot:
Has enhanced his reputation this season – but his contract is affordable and won’t have too many offers in the summer. Stays.
Tim Krul:
May well lose his place to Elliot. Even if not, a second relegation might see Krul want to explore pastures new. Leaves.
Daryl Janmaat:
The club would want to keep him – but his heart is not in the Championship. Leaves.
Fabricio Coloccini:
Finally – he gets his move back to Argentina. Leaves.
Jamaal Lascelles:
Affordable and hasn’t really looked like a PL player. Spell in the Championship would do him good. Stays.
Steven Taylor:
If he wants to say – he might be one of the few players for whom a drop to the Championship might help. More likely to stay if they go down. Stays.
Chancel Mbemba:
Unless Newcastle wanted to flog him, I don’t think he’s likely to leave. Young enough that some time in the Championship won’t hamper his career. Stays.
Paul Dummett:
Can’t see any Premier League clubs desperate to take him off Newcastle’s hands. Stays.
Massadio Haidara:
See Dummett, Paul. But in Haidara’s case, Newcastle might entertain offers. Leaves.
Florian Thauvin:
Not a chance would he stay.
Moussa Sissoko:
See Thauvin, Florian.
Gini Wijnaldum:
I have a feeling Wijnaldum is the sort of character that would feel like he owes Newcastle should they drop down. But a large salary coupled with a decent price tag might force Newcastle to sell. Leaves.
Jonjo Shelvey:
Has expressed a desire to stay at Newcastle for the long-term. Captain in the making. Stays.
Andros Townsend:
Similar to Shelvey in regards to attitude. If Newcastle can afford to keep him, he’ll be there. Stays.
Jack Colback:
Local lad – don’t think he’d be too worried about a season in the Championship. Stays.
Henri Saivet: Who?
Rolando Aarons:
Another player for whom time in the Championship might be the best thing yet. Stays.
Cheick Tiote:
I invoke the “arse in Fenwick’s window” cliché if this guy stays. Leaves.
Ayoze Perez:
Similar to Mbemba: though Perez will likely have his fair share of offers. He might be tempted to move, but I think he could be persuaded to stay. Stays.
Siem de Jong:
He doesn’t appear to have a Sissoko-esque ego, but I still don’t think he drops down. Leaves.
Aleksandr Mitrovic:
I think the lad will want to stay: it might be down to his contract. Stays.
Papiss Cisse:
Leaves.
Emmauel Riviere:
Might well stay but could have offers to go back to France. On the fence.
Bouncing back?:
With the squad that stays, I would be optimistic of a return to the PL. The club ought to sign some Kevin Nolan/Joey Barton type characters to try and carrel some of the never-say-die spirit so important in the 09/10 season. Even more important would be persuading Benitez to stay. Not impossible. If he was guaranteed the investment and given full control of the club, there’s every chance he could be convinced.
Now we have Benitez, however, there’s zero part of me that thinks (like some fans) that a spell in the Championship would “do the team good” – as a way to restart or refresh. The appointment of Benitez already accomplished that. That’s about the best fresh start Newcastle fans could hope for. So, let’s hope that this article is as redundant as Jonjo Shelvey’s comb.
