Battle Royal - The Fight For Survival

As we head into the last set of fixtures, Newcastle United still find themselves deep in trouble and 19th in the table with 8 games to salvage their season. The appointment of Rafael Benítez has given the side fresh impetus, and the Spaniard’s first two games in charge has shown that there’s still some signs of life – but is it too little, too late? Mitrović’s late goal against fellow strugglers Sunderland in the Tyne-Wear derby to earn a point could prove to be decisive, but on the flipside, failure to win such a crucial game could prove to be fatal in Newcastle’s quest for survival.

This week’s game against 17th placed Norwich City at Carrow Road is another six-pointer, another huge game; a defeat in Norfolk will all but seal Newcastle’s relegation. If the worst were to happen on 02nd April, the Magpies would be 6 points adrift of safety. However, the international break has left Benítez with the opportunity to really drill in and assert his plans. The ex-Real Madrid manager and his coaching team are renowned for their meticulous strategies; so there’s some solace in knowing that Newcastle finally have a man at the helm who knows what he’s doing.

With Newcastle, Norwich and Sunderland fighting it out to avoid the drop, we take a look at their remaining fixtures and the possible outcomes:

Newcastle United’s remaining games and prediction:

Norwich City (a) 0-1 W

Southampton (a) 1-1 D

Swansea (h) 2-1 W

Manchester City (h) 1-2 L

Liverpool (a) 2-0 L

Crystal Palace (h) 2-0 W

Aston Villa (a) 0-1 W

Tottenham (h) 2-2 D

Vying for a desperate win after a much-needed break, the game against Norwich could be the dose required for Newcastle to kick-start their bid for survival. Playing away from home will give the players some respite rather than playing at St. James’ Park with the added pressure. With the defence looking fairly steady since Benítez’s arrival, and perhaps more emphasis being added to the Mbemba and Lascelles partnership, I’m optimistic the Magpies can scrape a 1-0 win in what’ll be a tense-scrappy affair.

I wouldn’t read too much into Norwich’s away win at The Hawthorns. WBA are safe; nothing to play for and are just waiting for the season to end. The Magpies then travel to St. Mary’s, where they have a poor track record. Southampton are still in the hunt for Europe – only 4 points off the Champions League spot, and Newcastle could come unstuck against Koeman’s men. The last time the Geordies won at St. Mary’s was in 2004 – right-back Stephen Carr scoring a screamer in a 2-1 win. However, if we were to beat Norwich, I expect a buoyant Newcastle side to grab a draw. If we can manage to get 4 points from our next two away fixtures, confidence will be high going into the Swansea game and St. James’ Park will be in full voice. I envisage Shelvey putting in a stellar performance against his former employers and Newcastle to dominate the game, but with a nervy ending.

The Manchester City and Liverpool game will be too much of a bigger task, and I cannot see Newcastle getting anything from those fixtures. Since the turn of the year, Crystal Palace have been in shocking form under Pardew, and I expect their form to continue. Newcastle’s record at Villa Park in recent years has been good, and Aston Villa’s relegation to the Championship could be confirmed before the two sides meet in Birmingham. With more to play for and Aston Villa looking incredibly fragile, it’s definitely feasible to see another scrappy 1-0 away win for the Toon Army. Going into the final game of the season against Tottenham Hotspur at St. James’ Park could still well mean we aren’t out of the mire. I am just hoping Leicester City clinch the title before that, so Tottenham come into the North-East with nothing to play for and their England stars rested with the Euros around the corner – I’m settling with an enthusiastic 2-2 draw.

POINTS COLLECTED: 14

Norwich City’s remaining games and prediction:

Newcastle United (h) 0-1 L

Crystal Palace (a) 1-1 D

Sunderland (h) 1-0 W

Arsenal (a) 3-1 L

Manchester United (h) 2-3 L

Watford (h) 2-0 W

Everton (a) 2-2 D

As mentioned above, I anticipate a revitalised Newcastle to beat Norwich and do the double over them. Norwich’s main men are Brady, Hoolahan, Naismith, Redmond and Mbokani. Out of those five players, I only see their top-scorer Redmond – with 5 – causing a threat with his pace. If they were to lose this fixture, it’ll seriously hinder their confidence and something of a snowball effect may occur, like it did when they conceded a last-minute goal against Liverpool to lose 5-4. However, their next game after Newcastle will be against the out-of-form Crystal Palace, and they’ll have a decent opportunity to put it right.

Pardew will be itching for a win and will want to ensure his side don’t find themselves scrapping with Newcastle, Norwich and Sunderland. I think the game between Crystal Palace and Norwich will be the proverbial “a game of two halves,” so I’m going for a score-draw. Next up for the Canaries will be Sunderland – by this time, the encounter between the two will have a greater importance, but home advantage will pay dividends on this occasion.

Norwich will then have Arsenal and Manchester United, two fixtures where they’ll give it their all but will eventually come short. It’ll then be followed up with a home game against Watford, a side that’s already assured their Premier League status and could potentially be looking ahead to an FA Cup final – I can only see a Norwich victory in this must-win fixture for them. Their final game of the season will be away to Everton, who could also be looking forward to an FA Cup final. Roberto Martínez’s men have performed below their expectations in the league, but Romelu Lukaku has been in scintillating form. It’ll be difficult seeing Norwich getting a win at Goodison when you consider their poor away form.

POINTS COLLECTED: 8

Sunderland’s remaining games and prediction:

WBA (h) 2-0 W

Leicester City (h) 0-1 L

Norwich City (a) 1-0 L

Arsenal (h) 1-1 D

Stoke City (a) 2-0 L

Chelsea (h) 0-3 L

Everton (h) 2-1 W

Watford (a) 0-1 W

Sunderland’s survival will be heavily relied on Jermain Defoe. The Mackems next two fixtures are at home, and Allardyce will see this as a great opportunity to get some points on board. With 12 goals this season, the former England striker will most likely add to his tally against a lacklustre WBA side. However, the game against Ranieri’s Leicester City will prove too difficult. The title chasers are 5 points clear, and their qualities will be too overwhelming for the Wearsiders. Reeling from the defeat against Leicester, Sunderland’s mettle will be really tested at Carrow Road.

After failing to get anything out of Leicester and Norwich, I expect a resolute Sunderland side to face Arsenal. With the backing of the home crowd, and Wenger’s difficulty in overcoming Allardyce – a draw is perhaps on the cards in this fixture. The last time Sunderland went to the Britannia and won was in 2012, but with Stoke City pushing for Europe and armed with Shaqiri and Arnautović, the Potters will see this encounter as a home-win. Since the arrival of Guus Hiddink at Chelsea, they have looked in very good form and can steamroll over teams when they turn it on. Sunderland have a very lowly record against Chelsea in the league, and I can’t see them getting anything from this match.

Their last two fixtures are against Everton and Watford, and Allardyce will be endeavouring for maximum points to aid their push for safety. With Everton and Watford possibly distracted by an FA Cup final, Allardyce’s endeavours will be repaid, but going by the predictions above – it’ll be Newcastle who will be the conquerors of this three-way battle.

POINTS COLLECTED: 10

The above predictions will mean the following: